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The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: New York : Random House Trade Paperbacks, ©2010.
Edition/Format:   Print book : English : 2nd ed., Random trade pbk. edView all editions and formats
Summary:
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
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Additional Physical Format: Online version:
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 1960-
Black swan.
New York : Random House Trade Paperbacks, ©2010
(OCoLC)1085908216
Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN: 081297381X 9780812973815
OCLC Number: 213400968
Notes: "Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States ... by Random House in 2007"--Title page verso.
Description: xxxiii, 444 pages : illustrations ; 21 cm
Contents: Prologue --
Part 1: Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd --
Part 2: We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? --
Part 3: Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony --
Part 4: The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan --
Epilogue: Yevgenia's white swans --
Glossary --
Postscript essay: On robustness an fragility, deeper philosophical and empirical reflections. I. Learning from mother nature, the oldest and the wisest ; II. Why I do all this walking, or how systems become fragile ; III. Margaritas ante porcos ; IV. Asperger and the ontological black swan ; V. (Perhaps) the most useful problem in the history of modern philosophy ; VI. The fourth quadrant, the solution to that most useful of problems ; VII. What to do with the fourth quadrant ; VIII. Ten principles for a black-swan-robust society ; IX: Amor fati : how to become indestructible.
Responsibility: Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
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Abstract:

Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.

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